TRAINING ADVANCE PETROLEUM ECONOMIC: VALUATION, DECISION AND RISK MODELING IN UPSTREAM OIL AND GAS PROJECT

OVERVIEW

Investments in an oil and gas project involve large amounts of funds so that studies are needed to anticipate various possibilities that will occur from the project. The existence of high uncertainty in oil and gas projects, both from a technical and non-technical perspective, causes the risk of oil and gas projects to be relatively higher compared to projects from other industries. Project assessment is carried out to estimate the possible level of profitability of an investment project. The results of a project assessment include:

1. Reference in planning development and operation strategies for a project
2. Reference in determining which project is the most interesting from the project portfolio owned
3. Reference in carrying out the capital allocation process effectively and efficiently.

1. Overview
2. Oil And Gas Project Assessment
   1. Assessment And Developmental Techniques
   2. Oil And Gas Project Assessment Parameters
3. Conventional And Modern Assessments
4. Real Option Method
   1. Black Scholes Merton Formula
   2. Real Option Theory
   3. Intuition Behind Real Option
5. Deterministic Modeling
   1. Deterministic Model
   2. Scenario Analysis
   3. Sensitivity Analysis
6. Probabilistic Modeling
   1. Monte Carlo
   2. SIPmath Software
   3. Forward Pricing Model
   4. Dynamic DCF vs Real Option
7. Optionality Modeling
   1. Decision Tree Analysis
   2. Financial Option Analogy
   3. Binomial Lattice
   4. Fuzzy Pay Off
8. Case Study

• Financial and investment analyst
• Project and portfolio managers
• Petroleum economist
• Corporates planners and executives
• Petroleum and facilities engineers
• Staff Production sharing contract